Talk:Mann Co. Supply Crate/Retired series

From Team Fortress Wiki
< Talk:Mann Co. Supply Crate
Revision as of 22:13, 26 September 2023 by TheLetterZed (talk | contribs) (Add discussion for Crate #82, including statistical analysis)
Jump to: navigation, search

Mann Co. Supply Munition Series #82 Drop Chances

It appears that the drop chances for the series #82 crate are incorrect. I have unboxed 40 crates and got the following items:

  • 9 x Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol Strangifier -> 22.5%
  • 8 x Phlogistinator Strangifier -> 20%
  • 11 x Cleaner's Carbine Strangifier -> 27.5%
  • 4 x Strange Cosmetic Part: Kills -> 10%
  • 5 x Strange Part: Full Health Kills -> 12.5%
  • 2 x Strange Part: Headshot Kills -> 5%
  • 0 x Private Eye Strangifier -> 0%
  • 1 x Big Chief Strangifier -> 2.5%
  • No Unusuals or other items

These drop chances are very similar to crates such as series #42, #49 and #77. Tumbolisu (talk) 17:20, 12 October 2020 (UTC)

Mann Co. Supply Munition Series #82 Drop Chances #2

Chances are closer to 20%, 20%, 20%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 5%, 4%, 0.67% (with the remaining 0.33% spread amongst the non-unusuals, roughly +0.04% each). It's definitely not what is listed currently. Raccoons (talk) 14:57, 2 June 2022 (UTC)

If there's any evidence for these chances, feel free to provide it and change the numbers.
GrampaSwood (talk) 16:12, 2 June 2022 (UTC)

Mann Co. Supply Munition Series #82 Drop Chances #3

I opened 100 #82 crates

23% Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol Strangifier

25% Phlogistinator Strangifier

24% Cleaner's Carbine Strangifier

5% Strange Cosmetic Part: Kills

8% Strange Part: Full Health Kills

8% Strange Part: Headshot Kills

3% Private Eye Strangifier

4% Big Chief Strangifier

no unusuals

Adding together with the previous user's results, chances are closer to

22.85% Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol Strangifier

23.5% Phlogistinator Strangifier

25% Cleaner's Carbine Strangifier

6.4% Strange Cosmetic Part: Kills

9.2% Strange Part: Full Health Kills

7% Strange Part: Headshot Kills

2% Private Eye Strangifier

3.5% Big Chief Strangifier

Assuming each type of item drops the same

~24% weapon strangifiers

~7.5% strange parts

~2.75% hat strangifiers

Certee (talk) 08:17, 7 February 2023 (UTC)

Mann Co. Supply Munition Series #82 Drop Chances #4

I agree with the previous users' assertions that Crate 82. I unboxed 165 and measured these results:

  • 43 Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol Strangifier
  • 40 Phlogistinator Strangifier
  • 35 Cleaner's Carbine Strangifier
  • 11 Strange Cosmetic Part Kills
  • 13 Strange Cosmetic Part Kills
  • 8 Strange Part Headshot Kills
  • 8 Private Eye Strangifier
  • 6 Big Chief Strangifier
  • 1 Unusual

I also counted the following using Backpack.tf, though I had to use the applied Strange items instead of their original Strangifiers due to a bug in Backpack.tf's charts grouping all Strangifiers together:

  • 55,607 Strange Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol
  • 65,446 Strange Phlogistinator
  • 48,550 Strange Cleaner Carbine
  • 3,622 Strange Cosmetic Part Kills
  • 5,814 Strange Part Full Health Kills
  • 6,293 Strange Part Headshot Kills
  • 5,894 Strange Private Eye
  • 5,732 Strange Big Chief

File:Crate 82 chart.png

I think that having it match Crate 42/47/77's probabilities is likely more accurate. My statistics is rough, but when I run a Chi Squared test against the old expected probabilities, it says to reject them all. However, running it on the new probabilities puts it at 7/9 accept. Here's my before and after, using p = 0.05.

Item Expected Probabiility Expected Frequency Observed Frequency Observed Probability Chi Squared
Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol Strangifier 12.38% 23.0268 43 0.2606060606 17.32454002 Reject
Phlogistinator Strangifier 12.38% 23.0268 40 0.2424242424 12.51105313 Reject
Cleaner's Carbine Strangifier 12.38% 23.0268 35 0.2121212121 6.225681304 Reject
Strange Cosmetic Part Kills 12.38% 23.0268 11 0.06666666667 6.281546643 Reject
Strange Part Full Health Kills 12.38% 23.0268 13 0.07878787879 4.366074237 Reject
Strange Part Headshot Kills 12.38% 23.0268 8 0.04848484848 9.806170125 Reject
Private Eye Strangifier 12.38% 23.0268 8 0.04848484848 9.806170125 Reject
Big Chief Strangifier 12.38% 23.0268 6 0.03636363636 12.5901957 Reject
Series 3 Unusual 1.00% 1.86 1 0.006060606061 0.3976344086 Do not reject


Item Expected Probabiility Expected Frequency Observed Frequency Observed Probability Chi Squared
Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol Strangifier 20.00% 37.2 43 0.2606060606 0.9043010753 Do not reject
Phlogistinator Strangifier 20.00% 37.2 40 0.2424242424 0.2107526882 Do not reject
Cleaner's Carbine Strangifier 20.00% 37.2 35 0.2121212121 0.1301075269 Do not reject
Strange Cosmetic Part Kills 9.90% 18.414 11 0.06666666667 2.985087216 Reject
Strange Part Full Health Kills 9.90% 18.414 13 0.07878787879 1.5917995 Do not reject
Strange Part Headshot Kills 9.90% 18.414 8 0.04848484848 5.889616379 Reject
Private Eye Strangifier 4.95% 9.207 8 0.04848484848 0.1582327577 Do not reject
Big Chief Strangifier 4.95% 9.207 6 0.03636363636 1.117068426 Do not reject
Series 3 Unusual 1.00% 1.86 1 0.006060606061 0.3976344086 Do not reject

--TheLetterZed (talk) 22:12, 26 September 2023 (UTC)

Page is reaching length limits

  • Post‐expand include size: 4126812/4194304 bytes

We're close to reaching the length limits for this page. With more retired crates being added it will cause rendering issues. Perhaps we can separate it into two pages: Retired Cases and Retired Crates? Oap (talk) 01:28, 6 September 2023 (UTC)

Pictogram plus.png Support. Sounds good. — Tark 01:39, 6 September 2023 (UTC)
Update: I was able to get the page size down by removing the data-value attribute I added to the rate rows: "Post‐expand include size: 3986860/4194304 bytes". Will still eventually reach the limits after a few more cases get added to this page, as one case table, description, etc. adds quite a bit to the page size. Will split this page into two pages.